Party leaders matter less than you'd think
The Westminster soap opera loves a falling protagonist, but the coverage outweighs their importance
“A new dawn has broken, has it not?” Such was the remark of Tony Blair after his stonking election victory in 1997. He sounded optimistic and triumphant, but also wrecked by months of campaigning and short on sleep.
Judging by his foray in the New Statesman last week, another such dawn is not likely to be in the offing. The local election results proved largely disappointing for his party, most notably in the loss of the parliamentary seat in Hartlepool, but also throughout England. Labour is crocked, they say, and Keir Starmer’s days are numbered.
Blair begins with the assertion that political parties “have no divine right to exist”. The magazine cover warns, portentously, that “without total change, Labour could die”. “Complete deconstruction and reconstruction”, is the cure, and the author clearly has one man in mind for the job.
Such language makes for cracking stories. The biggest tale in journalism is the appointment of a new prime minister, but bigger even that that would be a new party permanently replacing an old one. This event has arguably only happened once in British politics, when Labour overtook the Liberals in the early 20th century. (Factions rose and fell before this, but such events aren't that analogous to our modern party system.)
Being very old at this stage, I must point out we have heard such things before. In the mists of 2017, Tory bigwigs warned that the party's voters were dying off, with existential consequences. Nick Cohen, a leftwing hack, is one of many who have warned of the party’s impending demise throughout the Brexit saga.
More amusing still is an article from 2004 by the historian Anthony Seldon. In it he notes that the governing party “has become the supreme flexi-party, jettisoning policies and interests that played badly with Middle England and insisting on unity at all costs”.
“The most recent polls show support for the [opposition] languishing at around 30-35%, down on the level recorded earlier this year, and even lower than last summer's showing,” he continues. “Never have such low polling numbers been followed by the [opposition's] return to power.”
Seldon is of course describing the Conservatives' grim prospects against all-conquering New Labour, but much of it could be said of the current situation. There is even a reference to a Hartlepool by-election in which the Tories fell to fourth place. Just as now, such by-election troubles are viewed as an omen for future general elections.
Blair and his posse were singing a similar tune during Jeremy Corbyn's leadership. While I had little time for the Islington interloper, the fact is that he won 40% of the vote in 2017, and might have formed a coalition with a mild swing. He had his issues, but Corbyn was electable, and nearly elected.
Leaders can make the difference between winning and losing, but party affiliation is the main driver in British politics. Even a bad leader can comfortably pick up around 30% of the vote in a general election, so long as they head up Labour or the Tories.
This fact is why backbench Labour MPs spent so many fruitless months trying to unseat Corbyn. The brand value – to use a vulgar term – of the big two parties is the fundamental fact in British elections, locked in by first-past-the-post voting. Even when parties like the Liberal Democrats and Ukip clock up serious votes, this rarely translates into serious seats.
If Chuka Umunna’s suaveness could have carried an election alone, parties would crumble like nothing. This is exactly what happens in France, where Emmanuel Macron set up a new party and won the presidency in short order. The best fringe parties can hope for in Britain is to pull the big two one way or the other.
Labour will of course collapse one day, just as all things must pass. Even the Tories, who love to tout their longevity, will win their last election in time. But it’s probably not this election cycle, nor even the next. Nor the one after that.
Mob rule. The attempted detention of two Indian nationals in Glasgow prompted our first topic in this week’s Right Dishonourable podcast. When is it right to stop the authorities administering the law? Also, we talk voter IDs and Eurovision.
Redefinition. What the world surely needs is for more privately-educated men to weigh in on who belongs to the working class. I have made a start here, so feel free to join in.
Third-of-life crisis. Legacy journalists must be contractually obliged to snark at Substack newsletters, so common is the trope. But Laura Freeman makes a good point in the Times that some millennials are trying too hard in life, including by writing newsletters.
Lockdown has lifted further and I am off for a long weekend in a place that is not where I live. You too should go on holiday, but flying abroad is very bold at this point, to use the Yes Minister definition. Buy British, etc.
Jimmy